About 60% of users who placed bets on the World Cup for the first time through Polymarket had never used blockchain protocols before. This indicates that prediction markets are becoming the first entry point into crypto for many people.
This conclusion was reached by analysts at Bitget Wallet. Over 90 days, they studied on-chain activity of 857,000 active Polymarket users.
According to Bitget Wallet, more and more people are entering the crypto industry through prediction markets, rather than starting with buying tokens or using DeFi protocols.
According to Bitget Wallet COO Elvin Kan, the industry previously tried to attract newcomers with simpler wallets and more user-friendly interfaces. But that was not enough. To start using crypto, people still had to figure out how blockchain works.
“Prediction markets have completely changed this approach. People come not because of cryptocurrencies, but because they want to make a prediction on an event they are interested in,” Kan said.
Daily executed volume on prediction markets. Source: Dune
According to Dune, on Saturday, the executed volume on prediction markets reached $713 million for the first time. This refers to contracts that traders bought or sold through already open orders.
This surge happened just over a week after the start of the World Cup, which began on June 11.
World Cup Contracts Brought Polymarket Over $3.1 Billion
A report by Bernstein on June 11 stated that the 2026 FIFA World Cup could add more than $3 billion to the sports betting market, and another $5 billion to $10 billion in user volume to prediction markets. Judging by the activity on Polymarket, interest is already huge. The contract for the World Cup winner alone has collected over $3.1 billion in trading volume.
These forecasts are already starting to come true. According to Polymarket, the contract for the FIFA World Cup winner has already collected over $3.1 billion in trading volume.
Contract for the FIFA World Cup winner. Source: Polymarket
Over the past 30 days, sports contracts have become the main source of activity on the largest prediction market platforms.
On Kalshi, trading volume in this category exceeded $8.5 billion, making sports the most popular segment on the platform. On Polymarket, sports events also took first place, providing over $4.9 billion in trading volume for the same period, according to Defirate.
Most popular categories on Kalshi and Polymarket. Source: Defirate
Market Growth Attracts Attention of Regulators
The popularity of prediction markets related to sports events has increased pressure from U.S. authorities.
On June 17, Kentucky authorities filed a lawsuit against five platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. They were accused of operating without a license to organize sports betting.
Currently, similar lawsuits against prediction market operators have been initiated in at least 17 states. The situation has also involved the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the White House.
Later, the CFTC itself filed a lawsuit against eight states. According to the regulator, the authorities of these states interfered with its exclusive authority to oversee federal event contracts.
