The Ripple XRP price is holding above $2.08, but there is still no full confirmation of a breakout. The reason is not so much price weakness as timing. Over the past week, inflows into spot ETFs for XRP have dropped to their lowest levels since launch, coinciding with a noticeable slowdown in growth.
At the same time, the market has formed a contradictory picture. Long-term XRP holders have started to actively accumulate positions, showing confidence in the asset’s future. Meanwhile, institutional demand through ETFs has noticeably weakened.
As a result, XRP is at a point of uncertainty. On one hand, there is support from holders who are in no hurry to sell. On the other, fresh institutional money inflows have temporarily declined. This imbalance is now keeping the price in a narrow range, making the market’s next move especially important.
Weak Inflows Into XRP ETFs Slow Breakout Confirmation
On the daily chart, Ripple XRP still maintains a bullish “inverse head and shoulders” formation. The structure is intact, but movement has stalled. The price is holding above the right shoulder around $2.08, but confirmation of a neckline breakout is still far off. This pause matches the ETF dynamics well.
For the week ending January 9, spot ETFs for XRP attracted only $38.07 million in net inflows. This is the lowest value since launch and almost 84% below the late November peak, when weekly inflows reached about $244 million. Timing plays a key role here.
The sharpest price weakening for XRP occurred from January 6 to 9, exactly when ETF interest began to noticeably fade. The lack of fresh institutional demand became one of the factors preventing the market from getting the momentum needed to confirm a breakout.
ETF inflows into XRP are weakening. Source: SoSo Value
This does not negate the bullish structure on the chart. Rather, it explains why the breakout has not yet developed. For such formations, the market needs steady demand near key levels. At the current stage, with ETF inflows weakening right at the right shoulder zone, the price has paused instead of accelerating.
The breakout zone itself adds complexity. The key level around $2.50 is trending upward, so confirming XRP movement requires not just price growth but also stable demand inflows. Right now, the ETF element remains the weak link, which is why the market is not in a hurry to move further.
Delayed XRP breakout. Source: TradingView
Long-Term XRP Holders Sharply Increase Buying
Amid weakening ETF inflows, another important change has occurred in the market.
From January 9 to 10, the net position of XRP holders rose sharply. The net position change indicator jumped from about 62.4 million XRP to 239.5 million XRP, nearly 300% in just one day. This indicator reflects accumulation by holders, not short-term trades, so such a spike signals targeted buying.
XRP holders are actively increasing positions. Source: Glassnode
This is important because it partially offsets the decline in ETF interest. While institutional demand through funds has paused, long-term holders have started actively buying up supply from the market.
Where this may meet resistance is shown by the entry price heatmap.
The first major supply zone is in the $2.14–$2.15 range. About 1.88 billion XRP was previously accumulated in this area. The price is now trading just below this zone. A daily close above it would be the first serious sign that the market can absorb supply and move higher.
For the market to break through this large supply zone, long-term holders’ confidence alone is no longer enough. XRP will need an additional source of demand, primarily a return of ETF inflows.
Key XRP supply zone. Source: Glassnode
Above is the next, even more important resistance area. It is in the $2.48–$2.50 range, where about 1.62 billion XRP is concentrated. This zone almost coincides with the key level where the market is waiting for confirmation of further movement.
Key level zone for XRP. Source: Glassnode
That is why the pause in ETF inflows has not yet led to a sharp price drop. Selling pressure is largely absorbed by accumulation from long-term holders. XRP remains in a range while the market waits for the next demand trigger.
XRP Levels That Will Determine Growth
Right now, the XRP price is squeezed between active buying from holders and a lack of confirmation from demand. The key levels ahead are clearly visible.
The first is around $2.15. A daily close above this zone will push the price above the nearest supply cluster and show that recent accumulation by holders is truly working.
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The next level is around $2.28, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Breaking through it will open the way first to $2.42 and then to the area around $2.50, where more serious resistance is concentrated.
A sustained move above $2.50 will be a key moment. In this case, the market will confirm a transition to the next phase of movement and open up growth potential of about 34% from current levels.
XRP price analysis. Source: TradingView
Below, the $2.06 zone remains important support. Losing this level will weaken the current structure and delay further growth, though the idea of upward movement will not be completely broken.
At the moment, XRP is not turning downward, but it is not accelerating either. The price is more in a waiting mode. ETF inflows weakened just when the market needed confirmation, but long-term holders stepped in actively. Now it all comes down to one question: will fresh demand appear to push the price first above $2.15 and then through $2.50 before this confidence starts to fade.
