Bitcoin quickly lost part of its recent gains after news of the sale of 3,600 BTC by Strategy. The market reacted nervously, although some analysts are already expecting the opposite scenario. In their opinion, in the coming days the company may announce not new sales, but fresh purchases of bitcoin.
On Monday, before Wall Street opened, BTC sharply moved down. Traders tried to figure out how seriously Strategy’s new sale could affect the market.
Four-hour chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: TradingView.
After the start of the U.S. session, the price partially recovered and at the time of publication was holding around $62,000.
Strategy previously reported that by July 5 it had sold 3,588 BTC. The money went to dividends on preferred shares and to replenish the company’s reserves.
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Analyst Exitpump believes that the news of the sale was not the main reason for the drop, but rather a trigger. According to him, weakness on the chart was visible even before that.
‘Bearish signals were already there. I wrote about this yesterday. The news about Saylor’s bitcoin sale just intensified the drop,’ he wrote.
At the same time, Exitpump noted that funding rates are still positive. This means the market has not yet entered an outright bearish phase.
‘Looks like that’s it. A short-term bounce from $61.2K is possible, and then, I think, down again,’ the analyst added.
He also recalled a large buyer who, according to his observations, was building a position through TWAP. This is a strategy in which purchases are split into parts and made gradually so as not to move the price too much.
In Exitpump’s opinion, if this buyer stops, the market could quickly fall lower. The nearest ceiling for BTC he named as $64,000.
BTC chart with funding rate data. Source: Exitpump/X.
Trader Rekt Capital was also not surprised by bitcoin’s current weakness. He compared what is happening to the summer of 2022, when the market was in the late stage of a bear cycle.
‘Overall, bitcoin is now doing almost the same thing as in the summer of 2022,’ he wrote on X.
His chart shows that the 50-month EMA could again become resistance for the price. A similar picture was already seen several years ago, when bitcoin could not quickly regain previous levels.
Monthly BTC/USD chart with 21- and 50-month EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X.
Analysts Expect Possible BTC Purchases by Strategy
But not everyone is gloomy about the market. Trader Jelle drew attention to the weekly RSI for BTC/USD. According to him, bullish divergences are appearing on the chart, and the situation itself does not look critical.
‘In recent years, the BTC chart looked much worse than it does now,’ he noted.
Some traders also suggest that Strategy may have sold bitcoin only to cover current obligations, and then return to buying. If the company does announce new BTC purchases, this could quickly change market sentiment.
Weekly BTC/USDT chart with RSI. Source: Jelle/X.
On-chain indicators also provide an additional argument for a reversal. It was previously noted that some of them, for the first time since the end of 2022, began to show signals similar to reversal ones.
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Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe also believes the market’s reaction may be too emotional. In his opinion, investors are now pricing in the risk that Strategy will continue selling BTC.
‘The market reacted with shock. BTC is falling because participants are assessing the likelihood of further bitcoin sales by Strategy,’ he wrote.
But van de Poppe does not rule out that the opposite could happen.
‘I wouldn’t be surprised if in the coming days there is a message that they bought more BTC than they sold,’ the analyst added.
