Investors asking whether XRP can climb are watching on-chain data from the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and how analysts are interpreting it.
- Increased XRP Ledger transactions.
- Potential bullish trend reversal.
- Analyst observations.
XRP Ledger Metrics: A Potential Pre-Rally Tell
Sharing CryptoQuant charts in an X post, CW highlighted the latest XRPL transaction-count readings. He contrasted this with typical bear phases, when participation thins and activity drops, noting that shifts in throughput often line up with the early stages of rallies.
CW added that the current profile stands out after a forceful rebound from December 2024 lows. Notably, this strength arrives even as the broader crypto market slides amid elevated macro uncertainty. More broadly, XRP’s price can be shaped by regulatory developments, real-world adoption and payment flows, exchange liquidity, major partnerships and integrations, macro trends, Bitcoin’s trend and volatility, and XRPL technical updates that affect performance and developer activity.
- Rising crude oil prices: crude touched $115 today, its highest level since 2022.
- Geopolitical tensions: the U.S.–Iran war has weighed on broader risk appetite.
- Large unrealized losses in XRP supply: Glassnode estimates 36.8 billion XRP are at a loss, or roughly $50.8 billion in unrealized drawdowns.
Analyst ChartNerd suggests this backdrop is setting up a sizable move.
| Price Zone | Liquidity Cluster | Analyst Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| $1.00–$1.20 | Downside cluster | Possible dip into the zone to collect liquidity |
| Near $1.80 | Upside pocket | Rebound target if price turns higher after the sweep |
His base case: a dip into the $1.20–$1.00 zone to collect liquidity, then a rebound toward the $1.80 area.
Why XRP Could Still Dip to $0.70
In a separate X update, ChartNerd outlined a path to $0.70 for the XRP price. The call leans on Bitcoin’s market structure and its four-year rhythm, with a top registered in the fourth quarter of last year, and on the pattern that mid-cycle years, such as this year, tend to be bearish for crypto.
He acknowledged XRP could recover sooner alongside Bitcoin and the wider market. Still, he emphasized that BTC’s playbook often repeats during mid-cycle downtrends and bear markets. For the bearish scenario to fade, Bitcoin must hold support around its $60,000 low; a breakdown toward $50,000–$40,000 could, in turn, open room for XRP to revisit $0.70.
At press time, XRP changes hands near $1.35 with a 24-hour gain, according to CoinMarketCap.
As for whether XRP can reach $20, $100, or even $1,000, the biggest constraint is the market-cap math implied by price targets. With a token supply that is often discussed in the tens of billions, $20 would generally require a multi-trillion-dollar valuation, while $100 or $1,000 would imply valuations that rival or exceed the largest asset classes—outcomes most market observers treat as extremely unlikely without a step-change in global adoption and capital inflows.
At triple-digit targets, the discussion quickly shifts from chart patterns to market-cap feasibility; absent a structural change in adoption, those levels are typically viewed as low-probability tail scenarios.
For 2026, expectations tend to cluster around scenario ranges rather than a single number: a bearish track keeps the focus on retesting lower support zones (including the $0.70 area highlighted above), a base case keeps price oscillating in the broad $1–$2 region as liquidity is worked through, and a bullish case depends on sustained risk-on conditions that allow a break above nearby resistance levels such as the $1.80 pocket flagged by traders.
Looking out over a five-year horizon, projections widen further and usually hinge on whether XRPL usage translates into durable demand, whether regulatory clarity improves market access, and whether XRP captures meaningful payment and settlement flows versus competing rails. In an upside scenario, expanding utility and liquidity could support higher multiples; in a muted scenario, XRP may largely track broader crypto cycles and sentiment rather than delivering outsized independent gains.
For long-term holders, the core question is whether real usage converts into persistent demand; if it does, the risk-reward improves, but the position still carries cycle risk and regulatory headline risk.
On whether XRP is a good long-term investment or whether now is a good time to buy, analysts typically frame it as a risk-managed decision: XRP can offer upside in strong market regimes and during periods of improving adoption, but it also faces sharp drawdowns when liquidity tightens. Traders often look for confirmation around key support/resistance levels and size positions accordingly, while longer-horizon participants may prefer staged entries to reduce timing risk.
