Bitcoin barely reacted to the new wave of tension between the US and Iran. On Monday, its price hovered around $63,800. Over the day, the coin lost only 0.3%, and for the week it remained up by about 2%.
Other markets were noticeably more nervous. Gold dropped by almost 1.6% and approached $4,050 per ounce. Brent oil, on the other hand, jumped more than 4% and went above $79 per barrel. Traders were worried about conflicting reports on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes.
US government bonds were also sold off. The yield on two-year notes rose to its highest since February 2025. The MSCI Asia Pacific index lost 1.6% that same day.
US Central Command said the strikes on Iran were in response to an attack on a container ship. What is happening with the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. Tehran spoke of closing it for an indefinite period, but Washington denied this information.
The main market fear is related to oil. If the conflict escalates, prices could remain high for a long time. This would hit inflation again and complicate the Fed’s plans to cut rates.
The minutes of the June meeting already mentioned that some officials considered another hike. In the end, the rate was left unchanged, but the discussion showed that the regulator’s stance remains tough.
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This is bad news for gold and bonds. The longer rates stay high, the greater the pressure on assets that do not generate interest income.
The crypto market barely moved against this backdrop. Ethereum hovered near $1,800 and gained about 2% for the week. Solana looked weaker than the rest and lost about 5%. XRP traded around $1.09, Dogecoin — near $0.07.
Shares of SK Hynix drew special attention. In Seoul they plunged by 12%, although just a few days earlier the company’s shares in the US had risen by 13%. This pulled the Kospi index down by about 7%.
Previously, the growth of chipmakers helped bitcoin strengthen. This time, the sharp reversal in the sector had almost no effect on the cryptocurrency.
The market has already weathered several strikes on Iran, a stock selloff, a spike in oil, and tougher rate expectations from the Fed. Despite this, bitcoin continues to move in a narrow range.
Previously, a single news item about the Strait of Hormuz was enough to trigger a sharp crypto selloff. Now the reaction is weaker. It seems that bitcoin is more influenced by dollar liquidity and chip demand than by another round of geopolitical tension.
